What does the future hold for Europe?

Europe is at a crossroads domestically and internationally. What is next for the world’s most powerful continent?

Europe and America’s ‘special relationship’

The relationship between the USA and Europe has undergone a fundamental shift, specifically since President Trump was re-elected in 2024. The traditional transatlantic alliance is at a turning point.

Security, Ukraine and the NATO Standoff

The Trump administration has abandoned its post-war ‘role’ as Europe’s ultimate security guarantee. It has pushed Europe to pursue defence and security autonomy and independence. The US has meanwhile repeatedly made threats to pull out of NATO altogether.

The Trump administration completely uprooted the previous administration’s stance on Ukraine. Trump sought to redirect aid, bypass the EU and push Zelensky towards a negotiated agreement with Russia, even if it meant conceding Ukrainian land. Europe was furious. After the disastrous meeting between Trump and Zelensky in the White House in February 2025, it was clear Europe was on its own in its outright support of Ukraine.

Tensions spiked hugely again in 2025 after aggressive US threats to take the Danish territory of Greenland. European diplomats were shocked, and a major de-escalation effort pursued. It was threats like this that solidified the idea that Europe, for the first time in a hundred years, was truly alone.

Trade and The Tech War

Trump issued sweeping 30% trade tariffs on all European goods in 2025. An agreement was made later that year, but a 50% tariff remains on EU steel and aluminium. Not only can Europe not rely on the US for security, but due to the volatility of Trump’s economic policy, they can no longer rely on the US financially either.

In response, Europe moved away from US tech. France ordered its civil service to abandon Microsoft and Zoom and Germany restricted apps like WhatsApp. The US in-turn banned several EU officials from entering the country.

A shift in ideology

In 2026, a poll showed that EU trust in the US as a genuine, reliable ally had fallen to 11%. The US repeatedly claims that EU migration and free speech rules are making Europe weak, and that they are facing “civilisational erasure”.

In the last 2 years of Trump’s presidency, Europe has practically lost one of the world’s largest powers as its staunchest ally, and it is hard to see how the ‘special relationship’ gets fixed.

The Russian Threat

The threat from Europe’s east - Russia - is completely altering Europe’s security landscape, economy and governance.

Sabotage and Hybrid Warfare

Russia is escalating covert hybrid attacks within Europe’s own borders, blurring the line between peace, and active conflict.

European intelligence has recently intercepted serious sabotage attempts at Germany’s Leipzig airport, where Russia-linked explosive devices where found scattered in cargo planes. There are ongoing attempts by Russia to sabotage Polish railways and north sea cables. Unexplained drones are swarming infrastructure in Luxembourg, and cyber warfare is targeting European power grids.

Russian missiles and drones regularly enter EU airspace: In Moldova, Finland, Poland and Romania. A direct drone strike by Russia in Romania caused severe damage to a civilian apartment building.

Mobilisation in Peace-Time Europe

The combined threat from Russia, and the uncertainty over American reliability as an ally has forced EU countries to restructure their own defences, preparing for all out war.

Norway, Denmark and Belgium have all put plans in place for mobilisation. Denmark activated a 161 million euro emergency plan to safeguard water, electricity and telecommunications networks. Estonia is massing troops near its borders and purchasing long range artillery systems, specifically around the town of Narva, where they fear Russian provocations may occur.

Europes defence outlook is changing.

The Rise of The Far-Right

Far right parties are becoming embedded in mainstream political government. Nearly 30% of all European voters now support populist far-right parties.

Centrist leader such as Germany’s Scholz and France’s Macron have radically hardened their political stances in hope to deter people from voting for an actual right wing party. This culminated in the approval of deportation hubs in non-EU countries.

Italy’s leading voice, Giorgia Meloni, (now on track to be Italy’s longest serving PM) has successfully normalised the far-right stance of her ‘Brother’s of Italy’ party, making it a mainstream European political voice.

In back to back state elections in Germany, the far-right AfD has secured historic landslide wins. In France, Marine Le Pen’s ‘National Rally’ party has consolidated its status as France’s largest single party in parliament and she leads early polling for the next Presidential election.

The rise is increasingly fuelled by younger generations, driven by anxieties over the housing crisis, inflation and public services. 30% of French voters under 25 now back the National Rally, and the AfD is the second most popular party among young people.

So what comes next?

Without US guarantees, Europe must consolidate a “war economy” and join fiscal powers to ensure collective security.

The EU is pushing ahead with battling immigration. Italy has deportation hubs in Albania, influencing the idea if “offshore asylum” - deportation hubs set up in non-EU countries.

Open border travel among the Schengen area is changing too. It is being replaced by an increase in permanent checkpoints to curb immigration, fracturing Europe’s historic free-movement zone.

Europe’s future is uncertain. There is a real and continuous threat from Russia, from the US and a massive threat of the return of fascism to Europe.

Europe has problems all over - how they tackle them will determine the political and security landscape of the continent forever.